Airbus 20-year forecast sees growth shifting to secondary-city routes
Airlines and regional operators building thin-route networks across secondary cities in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East will drive demand over the next decade for network planners, route development managers, narrowbody-rated pilots, and MRO personnel positioned in non-hub markets.
Confidence to Act: MEDIUM
Airbus' 2026-2045 Global Market Forecast, published this week and analysed by CAPA Centre for Aviation, projects demand for 42,060 new commercial aircraft over the next twenty years — 22,240 units driven by traffic growth and 19,820 by fleet replacement. The forecast's structural argument, however, is not primarily about volume. It is about geography. Rising middle-class populations across hundreds of smaller urban centres in emerging markets are crossing the commercial viability threshold as aviation origins and destinations, shifting the gravity of demand away from the congested mega-hub corridors that defined the prior two decades of network design.
For aviation professionals, the forecast's most consequential assertion is that network design — not airport scale — is becoming the primary competitive differentiator. Airlines that can identify and serve profitable thin markets ahead of competitors are positioned to capture the next growth cycle. This is a direct signal for carriers operating narrowbody and widebody point-to-point capable aircraft — particularly the A320neo family and A321XLR — and for the commercial, operational, and technical talent required to stand up routes in markets that currently lack established infrastructure or MRO presence.
The twenty-year horizon means this is a positioning event, not a hiring spike. Professionals who develop fluency in secondary-market route economics, emerging-market regulatory environments, or narrowbody fleet operations now will be materially better placed when carriers accelerate network diversification through the late 2020s and 2030s. The forecast also reinforces asset demand signals for narrowbody types suited to thinner routes, with implications for lessor portfolio construction, training program investment, and MRO capacity planning in non-traditional aviation geographies.
Recommended Actions
A&P / Technician
Watch regional and low-cost carriers expanding into secondary markets in Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East for line maintenance and base maintenance roles. Cert value: A320-family type authorization and EASA/FAA dual-qualification will command premium positioning as new outstations open in underserved markets. Posting window: 18-36 months as network build-out moves from planning to operations.
Engineer / Program
Monitor A321XLR entry-into-service programs and secondary-city route certification activity at emerging-market carriers for DER, systems, and performance engineering demand. Timeline: multi-year runway from 2026 through the early 2030s. Skills to position: thin-route performance analysis, ETOPS/EDTO approval processes, and regulatory liaison competency in ICAO non-Category-1 environments.
Consultant / Contractor
The forecast's secondary-city thesis creates sustained consulting demand in route feasibility analysis, airport readiness assessment, regulatory market access strategy, and network planning for carriers and governments building out regional connectivity. Window: opening now with peak activity likely mid-2020s through 2030s. Entry point: target airline commercial teams, airport authorities, and development finance institutions funding aviation infrastructure in emerging markets.
Training Provider
Anticipate growing narrowbody type-rating and recurrent training demand — particularly A320-family — in Southeast Asia, the Gulf, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America as carriers staff secondary-city networks. Program move: establish or deepen partnerships with regulators and carriers in these regions now; ATO approvals in target jurisdictions take 12-24 months and first-mover positioning matters in underpenetrated markets.
Capital / Finance
The 42,060-aircraft demand projection, weighted toward narrowbody replacements and growth units serving thin routes, is a sustained positive signal for A320neo-family asset values and lease placement in emerging-market carriers. Portfolio implication: lessors should evaluate secondary-city operator credit quality and route sustainability as placement criteria evolve; aircraft capable of point-to-point thin-route economics will outperform hub-feeder types in lease demand. Cascade to workforce: 18-36 months before network expansion translates to visible hiring at new outstations.